Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
