Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent In Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Official Figures

The typical figure of everyday murders per month in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per recent official figures. But, security specialists have cautioned that homicide data may not point to enhanced countrywide security.

Notable Drop in Daily Averages

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 killings a day in the month of November compared with almost 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in the previous September. This information was delivered by the head of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that have been recorded over these months is remarkably significant,” the President said, noting that in November the least amount of murders were recorded for any November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Government Plan

Fierce drug cartel infighting, combined with the government’s highly militarised efforts to combat the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent years. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a murder figure more than four times greater than the US. However, killings have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her public safety strategy for an apparently more pronounced reduction in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President said: “We have a plan, we have oversight of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The central components of the President's safety strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative work.
• Increased coordination between various authorities.

Expert Warnings and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, security researchers cautioned that relying on murder data to assess the situation of pacification was misleading. This is notably true in light of the rise in different criminal activities such as people going missing.

“That would be positive information if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Alright, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

As reported by the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the same period the previous year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain states have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer reliable for assessing the reality of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the ability or the will to correctly recognize and classify bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month means of everyday homicides was additionally concerning because it might mask periods when there were particularly spiking levels of killings.

“Relying on the daily average makes spikes of violence invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the administration can highlight the success of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between last October and this past November for high-impact offenses, according to government data. Over 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

Yet notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico continues to be plagued by extreme violence, with several regions in the midst of cartel-fueled conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent murder of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the past year.

A short time later, many thousands of young people demonstrated in Mexico City and across the nation to express their outrage at graft and narco-violence.

“The government frames [data] in a way to create a picture of security. Politically it’s extremely successful, from a social perspective it’s highly questionable,” Vargas said.