A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
